Updates on the currently developing storm chances into the New England region this upcoming weekend are still coming in (obviously). 7 days out, and we see a strong storm signal developing along the area, with a coastal storm developing inevitably from the clash of warm and cold air. So what is new with these ideas from the models?
Consensus is showing that the storm has a higher chance of remaining farther offshore than originally modeled. This essentially means that the teleconnects (the connections of dynamics in the atmosphere) are arriving at the idea that colder air will be wrapped into the system, and the frozen precipitation shield will be farther east than modeled earlier. This brings snow chances into areas as we approach the Hudson Valley, which falls in line with our original likely scenario. The snow is still not expected to accumulate in large amounts, but some isolated areas could see a nice 3-6 inch early-season snowfall out of the system. The big cities of the Northeast (NYC, Hartford, New Haven, Providence, Boston) are still expected to see a rainstorm from the system. Although it will be chilly, it will not be cold enough through all layers of the system to produce snows over these areas, although a snowflake or two mixing in can’t be ruled out later in the evening.
Winds will be a slight factor along the big cities of southern New England with the possibility of 30-40 mph gusts,, which could still bring some tree limbs down as foliage has not fallen off trees as of this time. With moderate rain expected, the ground could be soft enough for a very isolated chance of falling trees (more of an exception than the rule). Farther west towards New York State, there could be some slick spots as temperatures fall behind the system, bringing the chance of some black ice.
Some details of timing and when and where the snow may fall are being worked on, and will be updated soon!
Storm Effects Rating
The storm system is coming together nicely on models, but still having a lot of uncertainty with track placement and rain/snow lines. Therefore, the probability of this becoming a large snowstorm for the northeast is still very low.