Tropics Analysis: Week of 7/9/2018

The tropics are beginning to heat up a bit this week, as the Saharan dust clears from the middle latitudes of the Atlantic and allowing for better moisture transport. What can we expect during this week?

Early Week

Hurricane Chris will be departing the Eastern seaboard and continue moving to the northeast, away from any threat to land. However, a new interest remains in the Caribbean, moving north into the same general area that gave birth to Hurricane Chris. Development chances continue to show a 40-50% chance of development over the next few days in this area. A trough moving off the eastern seaboard may kick this disturbance out to sea, but if the area of unsettled weather is slower in its movement into the southeast US offshore, there could be a chance for the system to move inland over portions of the Carolinas. Strength of the storm depends on current interactions with elements in the upper levels, such as an active jet stream, combine with warmer waters offshore. This will be the feature to watch early week. Swells from Hurricane Chris will have an impact along shorelines with some possible rip currents.

 

Late Week

A possibility for Tropical Storm Debby will exist along the southeast shoreline, however, a new set of tropical waves will depart the African coastline, with no development expected until a more favorable position as they approach the Bahamas. Watch this area closely, as conditions will become better suited for development towards the end of the week as the trough departs the east coast and brings less shear to these areas.

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