It’s no secret the the tropics have been quiet this year, with only a few flare ups and a lack of tropical waves consistently exiting the African coastline. So why is this occurring, and what can we expect through the month of August here in the Atlantic?
Well, drier air has taken over near the Cape Verde island, also giving credibility to persistent shear that just does not allow storms to organize and become tropical systems. These features are almost impossible to predict, and therefore have had an effect on the season despite prior forecasts that ramped up the numbers of developing systems through 2017. This does not mean all is lost, however. The facts still remain that we are only halfway through the 3017 Hurricane Season, with a good 3 months left of historically conducive conditions.
As we enter into August, a stalled frontal boundary with strong high pressure pushing from The Northern Plains, we are set to see some spin which may develop as a result. Because of this, we have been eyeing interests in the Gulf of Mexico, and speculating development potential in that area. Water temperatures in the area will support any tropical system that will develop, and the addition of energy to that area will only further destabilize the region. Because of this, we have been watching this area closely for quick formation, which would explain Tropical Storm Emily a few days back.
Another area being watched is the area east from the Bahamas, giving credibility to conditions that could foster a storm over the next week or so as a strong front pushing energy off the US coastline and become a warm front, pushing back to the north and west, allowing a possible flare up of convection in this area and allowing the possibility of formation.
Points of interest remain off the Mid-Atlantic coast, where stronger thunderstorms mixed with limited wind shear could allow for development of multi-cellular systems, possibly mes-cyclonic complexes, or even a tropical system if given enough time. Water temperatures remain marginal in these areas.